Early Look at the Draft

“So whom do the 49ers select with the 10th selection? My answer: The best player available.” - Matt Maiocco, Press Democrat

Today, I'll post my first of many 49ers mock drafts and analyses for the upcoming offseason.

OK, to reiterate from the last post, the Niners' needs include QB, OL, pass rusher, DS, and perhaps NT, RB, and FB [and maybe WR or CB]. Through my mock free agency, the Niners have addressed a few of those needs with the signings of OT Vernon Carey [or OG Jason Brown...], DE Terrell Suggs, and FB Leonard Weaver along with maintaining Takeo Spikes, Allen Rossum, and Donald Strickland. So with that said, who do I think the Niners should draft in April? I'll go with Maiocco's answer: best player available.

MOCK DRAFT 1.0 [predicted under the assumption that no trades occur allowing the Niners to move spots]

[1] RB Chris Wells, Ohio State
I had a safety like Taylor Mays [currently the favorite along with the illogical picks of QB Sam Bradford and QB Matt Stafford] or William Moore being picked here for over a month. However, after deliberating over what I said in the last post, I think the range that Coach Sing is looking for at the safety position can possibly be found within a couple players currently on the roster. Thus, the Niners can afford to address the need later in the draft. Now, Wells is not the most popular pick for the Niners. In fact, it wasn't even one of the needs addressed by Sing. In the last post, I described how the top 4 teams in the league all have superior runing games. What's notable is that those four teams also use multiple RBs in their offensive systems. Coincidence? Probably not. This isn't a knock on Gore at all. He's still the best offensive player on the team and will be unless Vernon Davis can tap his potential. However, he's been taking a major beating since his college days, and his career won't last much longer unless the team can lighten his load. With the team to become more focused on the run in the coming seasons, another RB is an absolute necessity. Enter Chris Wells, who has been considered one of the premiere prospects of the draft all year with comparisons to Bo Jackson and Eddie George. He's a powerful RB that complements Gore nicely. Both RBs have injury issues so a RB committee may benefit them both in the long run. Furthermore, I believe he is a better talent than Mays or Moore anyway, so picking him would stay true to the "best player available" philosophy. Why not Knowshon Moreno? To me, he seems too similar to Gore. While I'd love to have two Gores on the team, I think some versatility at RB would benefit the offense more. Also, he's not a bruiser as much as Wells is, which I think the Niners need to wear down the defense. With his selection, the Niners will possess arguably the most powerful RB corps in the league for years to come.
Other options: FS Taylor Mays, FS William Moore, DE Brian Orakpo, DE Everette Brown

[2] NT BJ Raji, Boston College
It's been frustrating watching the Niners try to implement the 3-4 defense despite missing the most critical component of the system: a NT that can plug the middle of the line and draw multiple blockers. Like I said before, Franklin has improved dramatically toward the 2nd half of the season, but I'm not convinced that he's anything more than a back-up in this league. Raji is built like a prototypical NT and possesses 1st round talent. He's very one-dimensional, but he plays that dimension very well and the best run stuffer in his class. There are character concerns, but his talent is too good and the need is too great to pass him up at this point.
Other options: RB Shonn Greene, RB CJ Spiller, OT Phil Loadholt, OLB Clint Sintim

[3] OT Fenuki Tupou, Oregon
Tupou is 6'5" and 333 lbs of raw power. Scouts have used words such as "violent," "monstrous," and "nasty" when describing him. Physically, he's built to play right tackle but can move inside to guard when needed. Despite his tremendous talent, he's still very raw and may take some time to develop. With the recent pick-up of Vernon Carey, the Niners can afford to groom him into a starter somewhere along the line. David Baas will be in the final year of his contract, and it's yet to be seen whether he will be signed to an extension. What's also possible is that he'll move into the center position, replacing Eric Heitmann, who isn't an ideal fit for the power running game. Regardless of what happens to Baas, the Niners need some depth and some power on the line and Tupou is a fitting addition.
Other options: RB Rashad Jennings, DE Phillip Hunt, DE Larry English, FS Rashad Johnson

[4] FS Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
Delmas just pulled out a very productive senior season displaying a solid, balanced set of skills. From a talent standpoint, he's already an improvement over Mark Roman and he'll give Dashon Goldson some competition for the spot as the eventual successor. Considering he can start as a rookie, getting him in the 4th would be the steal of the draft.
Other options: DE Cody Brown, NT Terrance Taylor, QB Rhett Bomar, QB Nathan Brown

[5] QB David Johnson, Tulsa
Here, the Niners address the last of their quoted needs. Johnson had an impressive season but is still being overlooked by most draft gurus. Right now he's still viewed as a 5th-6th rounder. He has many of the tools needed to succeed and will benefit from riding the bench for a few years behind Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. Calling him the QB of the future is a stretch but still possible. If Matt Cassell can do it, there's no reason to think that Johnson can't.

[6] DE Slade Norris, Oregon State
With the pick up of Suggs, the Niners are able to bypass selecting a pass rusher until the 6th round. Norris was nothing more than a situational pass rusher which is OK because he'll be nothing more than a situational pass-rusher in the NFL either. His stats are VERY impresive considering he only played on 3rd downs against some strong competition.

[7] KR/PR Marcus Thigpen, Indiana
Oh yeah, just to clarify, it's virtually impossible to predict the last 2-3 rounds of the draft. During these rounds, you start hearing names you've never heard of from schools you've never heard of at the most random positions. Yet, every year, I predict teams to be logical and pick the most qualified players. At this point, drafting for speed for special teams would be a good idea. Thigpen has bounced between RB and WR so he doesn't have a true position and is still very raw. However, he is electrifying on the field and is a big play waiting to happen IF he can put it all together. If he stays at RB, he can be a change of pace RB for Gore and Wells; similar to the RB trio the Giants currently have. If he goes back to WR, he can be the deep threat the Niners have been lacking for years. With Rossum as the primary return specialist, Thigpen can wait in the wings and work on his game until he is ready to make a significant contribution.

NEXT: Running Backs Coach Tom Rathman