49ers 2009 NFL Draft Analysis

Again, I'm no expert and I'll never claim to be. I read up on the draft a lot and I like watching/observing players during games, but that's about the extent of my knowledge of players. That's why I'm always supportive of my team no matter who they pick, because in the end, I'm pretty sure they know more than I do when it comes to their selections. With that said, I was pretty spot on with some of my predictions, which I'm kinda proud of. Here are those predictions again.

Neither of the top 2 QBs, Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez, will be available at #10. There are more than a couple teams out there looking for a QB in the first 9 picks, and if they aren't picking a QB, they're looking to trade down with a team looking to draft one. If one of them does fall to the Niners, the Niners will trade down and get a great deal for the pick.

I got this one right. In fact, neither of them were available at #6.

One of the following three players will be available at #10: Brian Orakpo, BJ Raji, or Andre Smith. Assuming Stafford and Sanchez are gone by then, whoever is left of those three will be in a 49ers uniform next season. My wildcard pick for #10: CB/S Malcolm Jenkins.

Brian Orakpo was the only one of the three that made it to #10. However, my prediction was under the assumption that Michael Crabtree would be gone by #10, as well. I'm glad I was wrong about that.

The Niners will select a RB somewhere in the first 3 rounds. Selecting a RB in round 1 will only make sense if the team trades down. The RB crop is deep this year but there is a significant drop off in talent for big backs after the three mid-round power RBs: Andre Brown, Shonn Greene, and Rashad Jennings. McCloughan understands the necessity to pick up one of those RBs and will follow through with it.

By the time the Niners picked in round 3, both Andre Brown and Rashad Jennings were available. I think McCloughan decided to go with production at this point, which he should've done, and took Glen Coffee. The big question: If Greene was available, would the team have taken him instead? I'd like to think so.

Here's an extra bold prediction -- the 49ers will not select a wide receiver in this year's draft unless the player will be used primarily as a special teams player or if the player's name is Michael Crabtree. Finding a back up for Allen Rossum would be a smart move and there are a few WRs out there that can fill that void. Other than that, it'd be hard for any WR not named Michael Crabtree to find any significant playing time in our filled up WR corps.

I nailed this one, too. Call the fire department because I'm on fire.

If the Niners don't select BJ Raji in the first round, they won't draft a nose tackle until the 6th or 7th rounds, if at all. After Raji, the nose tackle talent just isn't there this year and the 49ers staff is probably content with the two NTs they have now until they draft Terrence Cody next year.

I got this one right, but I gave myself a lot of room for error. In free agency, they picked up DT Khalif Mitchell who looks like a defensive end, but has been worked in at nose tackle during minicamps.

The 49ers will draft a CB before they draft a safety. Right now, I think drafting a replacement for Walt Harris is a bigger need than drafting a replacement for Mark Roman.

I missed on this prediction. I'd like to think they would've selected a CB if they didn't trade away two of their picks for Carolina's future 1st rounder.

The 49ers won't draft a pass rusher until the 3rd round at the earliest. The value just isn't there at the earlier rounds. That means no Aaron Maybin, Everette Brown, or even Brian Orakpo. I think a tough, hard-working guy like David Veikune will be more appealing to the team than the flashier guys in the early rounds.

The 49ers didn't pick up a pass rusher until after the draft. In free agency, they picked up OLB Brandon Long (Michigan State) and OLB Diyral Briggs (Bowling Green). As of now, Briggs is the only one still on the team.

There will be a shitload of trades this year. I don't who or what or when the trades will occur, but they will happen and they will happen a lot.

I was right. There were a shitload of trades this year.

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To make things clear, I refuse to grade this draft one day after it finished. Whoever thinks they can judge the success of a draft this soon is full of it and is only kidding themselves. One doesn't realize the success of a draft until at least 3-4 years after because many draft picks don't even fully develop until they've been in the league for a significant amount of time. For example, Parys Haralson only realized his potential during his 4th year in the league. Prior to the 2008 season, many would've considered him a bust without much argument from others. Now after his breakout season, most consider him a steal in the 4th round. This analysis would be focused on how each pick fits into the team's plans and the impact they'll potentially make. Some are predicted to make more of an impact than others. Some are expected to contribute immediately while others will be given time to develop.

[1-10] WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
What he brings: Crabtree was widely considered as the premiere offensive playmaker of the draft. He is expected to bring a legitimate receiving threat immediately. 10 TDs/1000 yards is definitely not out of the question.
How he fits: Crabtree's expected to lead an already crowded WR corps. He will most likely take up-and-coming Josh Morgan's spot at split end and start opposite from either Isaac Bruce or Brandon Jones. His addition will open up running lanes for the run game and the seams for Vernon Davis to run his routes.

[3-74] RB Glen Coffee, Alabama
What he brings: Coffee is a hard-nosed, power RB that craves contact. He can easily add another 10 pounds to his 210 lb body and become an imposing runner between the tackles.
How he fits: Coffee is automatically the 2nd option behind Frank Gore. He provides a different element to the run game as a power back in contrast to the slashing type of running style that Gore possesses. He's expected to get about 5-10 touches a game, mostly during short-yardage situations and whenever Gore needs a breather. With the new offense in place, look for him to contribute more than previous #2 RBs DeShaun Foster and Michael Robinson did in the past.

[5-146] ILB Scott McKillop, Pittsburgh
What he brings: McKillop is almost everything you want in a middle linebacker. He is highly instinctive, intelligent on and off the field, very hard working, consistent in his tackling, and extremely competitive. Add a sprinkly of ferocity and you have the white Mike Singletary.
How he fits: McKillop figures to become the heir apparent to Takeo Spikes. In the mean time, he will serve as a back up and learn from the best in the business. Because of his superior football IQ, he will probably be able to fill in for the oft-injured Spikes when needed without hardly missing a step. McKillop and Patrick Willis will form the core of the MLB corps for years to come.

[5-171] QB Nate Davis, Ball State
What he brings: A whole lot of talent but less than ideal height and some spurts of inconsistency. Davis also has a well-publicized learning disability and will need probably need some time and some good coaching to become successful. However, his skill set, particularly his arm strength, currently outmatches the abilities of any other 49ers QB.
How he fits: Don't expect Davis to see the field any time soon. We'd probably be in big trouble if that were to happen. The coaching staff plans on bringing him along slowly and not to force his development. At this point, he is an insurance policy for the future (2-3 years down the road) in case the team decides that Shaun Hill cannot lead the team to the upper echelon of the league and Alex Smith's comeback ends up failing.

[6-184] TE Bear Pascoe, Fresno State
What he brings: Pascoe is another Singletary-type guy: intelligent, hard-working, super tough, aggressive, and sometimes nasty. His specialty is his blocking whether it is on the line or on the move.
How he fits: If he can block as well as Vernon Davis, this might end up as the steal of the draft. He's not expected to become a receiving threat--we already have two tight ends that excel at that. Instead, he's expected to help the team's transition into a running oriented offense and to provide more blocking stability on the line. His presence would also free Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker from blocking duties so they could focus more on becoming threats in the passing game. Don't count him out as a receiver though. He definitely has better hands than Billy Bajema.

[7-219] FS Curtis Taylor, LSU
What he brings: A lot of talent and a prototypical build but not a lot of production. He was a solid starter in college that showed some occasional flashes as a ballhawk and explosive hitter, but not consistently enough to warrant some consideration as an early round pick.
How he fits: Athletic safeties can be considered safe picks aronud this time because they can be used as assets on special teams. However, he's very talented with a lot of range--something the 49ers currently lack at the position--and might be able to be coached into a contributor in the secondary. Right now, he probably fits in as the 3rd FS behind Dashon Goldson and Mark Roman, assuming Roman isn't released/traded.

[7-244] DT Ricky Jean-Francois, LSU
What he brings: At times, he can be an explosive 1-gap penetrator on the line. Playing next to Tyson Jackson, Jean-Francois was often seen making plays of his own. However, off-field issues and questions of maturity has led him to fall to the later rounds.
How he fits: Like Crabtree, Jean-Francois coming into a crowded stable of defensive ends. Unlike Crabtree, Jean-Francois has his work cut out for him and will have to fight to make the roster, assuming the team only keeps 6-7 D-linemen. He certainly has the tools to become an effective playmaker, but he will need some time to develop.

[FA] RB Kory Sheets, Purdue
What he brings: The fastest RB at the Combine, Sheets is a scatback that likes to run between the tackles. He also has the hands to be a factor in the passing game.
How he fits: If he makes the team, he could fit in as the "Fire" in the 49ers' version of "Earth (Coffee), Wind (Gore), and Fire." The scatback is becoming more popular in the league with teams valuing the added speed to the run game. If he makes the team, he'd provide another element to the run game and a nice change of pace as a 3rd down RB.

[FA] OT Alex Boone, Ohio State
What he brings: Boone is a mammoth sized tackle and a classic mauler. However, he has some serious holes in his game, especially in pass protection. Even more concerning are his off-field issues regarding alcohol and bouts with the police.
How he fits: Although he is a free agent, he is the most significant addition an O-line in need other than Marvel Smith. He would fit in at RT but must prove that he can handle NFL defensive ends if he has any chance of making the team. He's also on his last strike so any more off-field mishaps would probably send him packing.

[FA] DE Brandon Long, Michigan State
What he brings: Workout warrior with extremely impressive measurables but very little on-field production. It was very hard to judge him because there just wasn't enough game film. While you can't deny the talent and athleticism, his instincts and football IQ are big question marks.
How he fits: Long will probably looked at as a pass rushing OLB. On most teams, he would be a long shot, but it's a significant position of need for the team so keeping him would be seriously considered. I have very high hopes for him, because the team really needs some depth and he has all the tools to become effective.