Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Mock Draft 7.0

This will be my final 7-round mock draft for the 2009 NFL Draft. At this point, all the teams have a pretty good idea of which direction they're gonna go next weekend and there won't be a lot of change between now and Saturday. With that said, this year's draft has the makings of the most unpredictable draft ever. The first 10 picks are wide open and no picks are 100% certain by any means. Thus, whatever the 49ers do at pick #10 will be determined by whatever occurs in the first nine picks.

Before I get into the mock drafts, here are some bold pre-draft predictions...

• Neither of the top 2 QBs, Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez, will be available at #10. There are more than a couple teams out there looking for a QB in the first 9 picks, and if they aren't picking a QB, they're looking to trade down with a team looking to draft one. If one of them does fall to the Niners, the Niners will trade down and get a great deal for the pick.

• One of the following three players will be available at #10: Brian Orakpo, BJ Raji, or Andre Smith. Assuming Stafford and Sanchez are gone by then, whoever is left of those three will be in a 49ers uniform next season. My wildcard pick for #10: CB/S Malcolm Jenkins.

• The Niners will select a RB somewhere in the first 3 rounds. Selecting a RB in round 1 will only make sense if the team trades down. The RB crop is deep this year but there is a significant drop off in talent for big backs after the three mid-round power RBs: Andre Brown, Shonn Greene, and Rashad Jennings. McCloughan understands the necessity to pick up one of those RBs and will follow through with it.

• Here's an extra bold prediction -- the 49ers will not select a wide receiver in this year's draft unless the player will be used primarily as a special teams player or if the player's name is Michael Crabtree. Finding a back up for Allen Rossum would be a smart move and there are a few WRs out there that can fill that void. Other than that, it'd be hard for any WR not named Michael Crabtree to find any significant playing time in our filled up WR corps.

• If the Niners don't select BJ Raji in the first round, they won't draft a nose tackle until the 6th or 7th rounds, if at all. After Raji, the nose tackle talent just isn't there this year and the 49ers staff is probably content with the two NTs they have now until they draft Terrence Cody next year.

• The 49ers will draft a CB before they draft a safety. Right now, I think drafting a replacement for Walt Harris is a bigger need than drafting a replacement for Mark Roman.

• The 49ers won't draft a pass rusher until the 3rd round at the earliest. The value just isn't there at the earlier rounds. That means no Aaron Maybin, Everette Brown, or even Brian Orakpo. I think a tough, hard-working guy like David Veikune will be more appealing to the team than the flashier guys in the early rounds.

• There will be a shitload of trades this year. I don't who or what or when the trades will occur, but they will happen and they will happen a lot.

Because of the unpredictable circumstances that will occur, I've made two mock drafts to accomodate the picking of the two players I believe have the best chance of being picked at #10, NT BJ Raji and OT Andre Smith. Also, I expect some sort of trade to occur at some point of the draft involving the 49ers. Again, this is a mock draft based on the needs of the team. It's sort of an "ideal" draft scenario, NOT the likely scenario. The real draft will probably look nothing like my prediction. Eh, it was still fun to make...
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Mock Draft 7.0

[1-10] NT BJ Raji, Boston College
Here, the Niners stay true to the planet theory and grab their missing piece to the 3-4 puzzle, who also happens to be the best player available.

[2-43] OT Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma
Perhaps the best RT prospect next to Andre Smith. Loadholt is a big run waiting to happen. Given the chance for him to develop behind Marvel Smith, Loadholt can solidify the offense in the trenches and help form a dominatingO-line.

[3-74] RB Shonn Greene, Iowa
A true pile-mover that can take a huge load off Frank Gore's shoulders. Always hits the hole hard and finishes every run falling forward. Gore and Greene would form a devastating 1-2 punch between the tackles.

[4-111] OLB Jason Williams, Western Illinois
David Veikune would make more sense here as he fits the mold of the hard-nosed, blue collar types that Mike Singletary loves. However, the team already has a guy like that in Parys Haralson. In Jason Williams, the team will acquire an explosive playmaker that can terrorize the opponents' backfields and can fill in on either the weakside or strongside.

[5-146] CB Victor "Macho" Harris, VTech
The fan in me made this pick. Macho Harris is a big name with a flashy game. Does he fit with the team? Eh, maybe. Truth is, I needed to draft a CB and he fits right in there in the 5th round. He fits a need so I drafted him which is exactly why I will never be the GM for an NFL team.

Actually, Macho deserves more credit than that. Although he can be a bit reckless at times, he's still a playmaker. He has a penchant for getting his hands on the ball and can really lay down the lumber as a defender. Also, he's a dynamic punt returner with a burst and good vision. He doesn't have the impressive 40-time but his 3 cone drill is intriguing.

[5-171] QB Nate Davis, Ball State
Here's another "eh" pick. Good feet, rocket arm, learning disability and all, Nate Davis has the tools but needs to prove he has the football smarts. Luckily, Jimmy Raye doesn't run a complicated system, and with Shaun Hill and Alex Smith ahead of him on the depth chart, he has some time to play catch up. With that said, if he sees the field in 2009, we're in BIG trouble.

[6-184] ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic
I've been a Frantz Joseph fan for a while now. I'm an even bigger fan now that his stock is falling and I think we can get a good deal picking him in the 6th round. Regardless of his current stock, he would be a wrecking ball of a TED linebacker and can someday, unseat Takeo Spikes as the team's TED.

[7-219] TE Bear Pascoe, Fresno State
Bear fills a need at great value. If he can prove his worth as a blocker, our TE group would look really good on paper.

[7-244] FB Conredge Collins, Pittsburgh
In Kansas City, Jimmy Raye had a lot of success running the ball behind his lead blocker, Tony Richardson. On the 49ers, he has another sledgehammer to run behind in Moran Norris. The addition of Collins adds a versatile component to the FB position in the mold of Richardson, who Raye can coach up to fill that role.

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Mock Draft 7.1

[1-10] OT Andre Smith, Alabama
The prototypical RT of the draft. Running the ball behind Chilo Rachal and Smith is going to be a beautiful thing.

[2-43] RB Andre Brown, NC State
The most explosive of the 3 mid-round big backs. He had a very impressive workout at the Combine, but his knack is finding the holes in the line, and smashing through them. The addition of Smith and Brown would drastically improve our run game.

[3-74] OLB Paul Kruger, Utah
Classic blue-collar, Mike Singletary-type defensive player. Athletic enough to be a force but can truly dominate with his tenacity and hustle. He will benefit from not being forced into a starting role as a LB and learn the ropes while coming in on 3rd downs.

[4-111] DT Roy Miller, Texas
Roy Miller has shot up draft boards recently. He's another hard working player that can win battles with his hustle and tie up double teams. If he can find a niche as a NT in the 3-4, he has the potential to be our designated run-plugger.

[5-146] CB Macho Harris, VTech

[5-171] QB Nate Davis, Ball State

[6-184] ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic

[7-219] TE Bear Pascoe, Fresno State

[7-244] FB Conredge Collins, Pittsburgh

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