The Anttaj Hawthorne Effect

***Update***
Apparently BJ Raji and his agents have disputed the claims that he failed a drug test at the Combine. There has been no official notice that he did test positive (unlike Anttaj Hawthorne), so it's probably safe to say that he really has been clean. Any questions on the issue would probably have been answered during individual team meetings. According the the 49ers, the reports were indeed false.

"Because top-10 picks are guaranteed anywhere from $10-30 million in their first contract, teams conduct thorough background checks before investing such a large sum. Gil Brandt, a longtime vice president of player personnel for the Dallas Cowboys who now works as a draft analyst for NFL.com, believe Raji will experience a significant drop in his draft status. 'We've seen in history, it usually causes them to go down a couple rounds,' he said. 'When that happens, teams are concerned and some teams take him off their board entirely.'" -- Mike Reiss, Boston Globe

Prior to the 2005 NFL Draft, Anttaj Hawthorne out of Wisconsin was widely considered the premiere prospect at the DT position. He was a big body at 6'3" and 310 lbs, and a standout football player. One failed drug test (marijuana) later, his stock plummeted all the way to the 6th round, where he was selected by the Oakland Raiders, whom he played for for two years before his NFL career came to an end...

Fast forward to the 2009 NFL Combine. DT BJ Raji is coming off one of the most dominant Senior Bowl weeks ever. As a player red flagged by past character issues mostly involving academics, he needed a strong showing to erase any doubts that may hurt his stock. While he didn't blow scouts away in his workouts, his solid performance solidified him as the top defensive lineman of his class and a lock as a top-10 pick...

Fast forward again... DT BJ Raji, CB Vontae Davis, and WR Percy Harvin have been tested positive for marijuana. First, let me go into how stupid this is. This isn't some random testing deal. Prospects are well aware that they will be tested for every narcotic on the planet when they get to the Combine. The fact that some of them even think it might be OK to smoke a blunt anytime near the Combine reflects poor judgment, immaturity, and tremendous stupidity. In the NFL today, particularly in the draft, character has become a focal point more than ever. The last few years have shown that poor character players can destroy teams from the inside-out while high class teams have been going strong consistently each year. Don't be fooled into thinking that a team would be willing to just overlook some character flaws just because of talent. If a team can't get that talent on the field because the player is getting high at home instead of studying the playbook, why should they even bother? Last year, OT Carl Nicks was considered an elite O-line prospect until reports of him being arrested arose. Once a 1st round prospect, Nicks wasn't picked until the 24th pick of the 5th round.

Don't be surprised if BJ Raji falls out of the top-10 or even the 1st round. I'm expecting an Alan Branch-type slide into the early 2nd round where some team will take a flyer on him. This drug test setback, along with already existing character issues, won't be ignored by GMs and coaches. As for his future, I think it'll truly depend on the team he ends up on and whether they can keep him focused. Would I still want him on the Niners? At #10, I still wouldn't be mad at it. He's a talented nose tackle, something the team has been in desperate need of for years. Plus, if anyone can keep Raji on track, it'd be Coach Singletary.